Joint Sovreignty Assembly

This is a slightly edited version of something I typed up in 2005 and showed to a small number of people. Before, as, or after you read this, you might want to read "Catholic Protestant and Dissenter."

Below is a proposal for a solution to the Northern Ireland conflict which will result in a United Ireland in such a way that a Unionist backlash is unlikely. It is also based on the idea that the way the GFA institutionalizes sectarian identities is very unhelpful and inhibits the development of normal politics in the North even more than is already the case with partition. Members of the Assembly have to identify as Nationalist, Unionist or Other, and on crucial votes regarding power-sharing, there has to be a majority of both Nationalists and Unionists (or 60% overall and at least 40% of each side). In general, this probably does institutionalize sectarian divisons, although it t does prevent a Unionist-only government and it makes it unlikely SF will be excluded.

But there is a better way.

What follows is based on the idea of shifting sovreignty over the North towards Dublin, with the end result a guaranteed United Ireland, but the JSA part could, without changing the composition of it and without the other things that move towards a United Ireland as described below, be used to govern the North in a way that avoids institutionalizing sectarian identities.

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I have always believed that Ireland's reunification cannot and shouldn't be done "overnight" (that is, within one year). The process should be gradual but with the end result of a United Ireland guaranteed by treaty between Dublin and London. The process should also involve a lot of neutral elements and make an effort to partly balance the over-all trend towards a United Ireland with some relatively harmless concessions to Unionists.

The Irish and British governments would sign a treaty outlining a series of three stages over 30 years that result in Dublin having full sovreignty over all 32 Counties of Ireland. The following are some suggestions as to what should be in the Treaty. ** indicates my explanation and justification of each section above those paragraphs.

Also, I'm not an expert on this stuff, so I'm leaving out a lot of technical details, and if this were adopted, I wouldn't be surprised if some things I recommend just have to be done differently.


The Treaty will establish three stages, each lasting 10 years, plus some conditions to last after the end of Stage 3 until amended by the Irish and/or British parliaments. The central element of this solution will be a Joint Sovreignty Assembly that will govern Northern Ireland.

** I think 30+ years period will be helpful. Easing unionists into a United Ireland will probably lessen the total amount of negative response by the unionists. It's kind of like how if you put a frog in water and then heat up the water gradually, the frog will not jump out of the water (and will die). When the first stage starts, I can't see there being a massive backlash, as the changes would be small. There would be 10 years for them to get used to the South having a significant input into N. Ireland government. Basically the same with the second stage, the third stage, and the Six-County assembly after stage 3.

** Although many would probably suggest that a joint sovreignty government should be based on an executive made up of appointees from Dublin and London, perhaps with some Northern Ireland dimension, I think it would make more sense and certainly be more democratic to establish an Assembly with members elected from the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, and Great Britain, from which a cabinet would be formed and to which the cabinet would be accountable. An executive made up of Dublin and London appointees which completely excludes NI politicians obviously would not work. If NI politicians were to be included at the discretion of London and Dublin, that would make them accountable to London and Dublin, not any constituencies in NI. Even if NI politicians in the executive were drawn from a NI Assembly, the British and Irish Cabinet members would still be accountable to London and Dublin. A Joint Sovreignty Assembly as I'm proposing it would mean a unified Cabinet drawn from and accountable to the same Assembly so there would be a lot more consistency and coherency in government policy, and Assembly members, especially those elected from NI, would be accountable to voters. This would, temporarily, result in more election boundaries being drawn and more elections being organized, but it would be worth it if it lasts only thirty years and results in a resoluton of the conflict in NI.

** Some republicans and nationalists might complain about people elected from Britain being in the Assembly, but I have gotten the impression that they feel good about joint sovreignty of the normal sort as a step towards a United Ireland, and that would involve people from Britain.

At every stage, representation in the Assembly will be weighted towards NI, and to a lesser degree, the Republic. There will be no designation of members as Unionist, Nationalist, or Other, nor any requirements on cross-community support for an executive or anything else.

** There is almost no chance that a unionist majority could exclude nationalists from the executive and return to the old days of Stormont. The only way that could happen is if, in the first stage, the British Conservatives got more than 30 seats out of 50 in Britain, and that's unlikely. Very few of the parties that would be in the Joint Sovreignty Assembly would tolerate even the exclusion of SF, although it's slightly possible SF might end up in the opposition anyway, but that would probably not be as bad as it would be under the current situation, where an Executive without SF would have a very large Unionist majority.

Stage One- Years 1-10

The JSA will be made up of 50 members elected from NI, 50 members elected from GB, and 10 members elected from The Republic. There's no reason why the elections in NI and The Republic couldn't be based on Proportional Representation with Single Transferable Vote, but it would probably be acceptable if the election in GB were conducted on a First-Past-the-Post basis. It will function on a parliamentary basis and elections will be held at least once every 5 years. Powersharing across sectarian lines would not be required, coalition governments would be formed the same way they are in Dublin, London, and elsewhere.

** The voluntary nature of coalition governments would faciliate the development of normal politics.

** Someone wrote a piece about joint sovreignty here. It's a good idea and I'm open-minded about a NI-only Assembly instead of what I propose in this post, although I'm not sure how it'll work if either London or Dublin don't give laws passed by the Assembly legal effect.

The JSA Treasury will pay for everything except UN-affiliated operations, and will get 45% of it's revenue from NI taxes, 10% from Dublin, and 45% from London. Initially all laws which had been applied from London to NI would continue but could be repealed or altered by the JSA. Laws and policies adopted by the JSA need not be in line with British laws, but the ultimate authority of the British constitution and House of Lords (or a Supreme Court) would continue.

The electoral quota for Westminster seats in NI would be doubled, while NI would elect members to the Dail with an electoral quota three times what it is in the rest of Ireland.

** This sounds kind of messy, as it will be altered two more times, but if the experts think it works, it should be done, although the important part is the joint sovreignty and the shifting of sovreignty to Dublin.

The British Army in NI will not exceed 10,000 and will be confined to barracks except in certain circumstances. A UN Peace-Keeping force (excluding British and Irish forces) of about 20,000 would be established. All UN forces will be under the command of a General (who is neither Irish nor British) approved by the Treaty Commission (whose members will be agreed by the Irish and British governments, and once appointed can not be forced to resign). The commander will be accountable on a day-to-day basis to a Defense Committee made up of the JSA Home Affairs Minister, a senior figure from the British MOD and one from the Irish MOD. The British Army can be deployed on the word of the UN Commander, but within twelve hours it must be approved by all 3 members of the Defense Committee and must be approved every 12 hrs. after that.

** SF and probably all other republicans do not like the idea of UN Peace-keepers in the North. Here's why I include that anyway. Even if this is done the right way, there will be a Unionist/Loyalist backlash, and the local police might not be up to it. On the other hand, using the British Army is unnatractive because A) we don't want them on the streets of the North, considering their history, and B) we can't be certain they'll consistently go after the loyalist paramilitaries, given their history. On the other hand, compared to UN Peace-Keepers, the Irish Army might just piss of the Unionists a little bit more- not because the IA would be brutal with civilians, they probably wouldn't, but because, until the Unionists have been eased into a United Ireland and realize that they have nothing to fear, they will likely react worse to the IA than to the UN.

The PSNI would, based on criteria drawn up by a Policing and Cease-Fire Commission (whose membership will be agreed by the British and Irish governments), purge itself of officers who are sectarian and/or have colluded with Loyalist paramilitaries. The vacated positions will be temporarily filled by officers organized by the UN (but excluding British and Irish Officers). Plastic bullets (and rubber bullets) would be banned (neither the police, Army, nor UN forces may use them). A Chief Constable would be appointed by the JSA Home Affairs Minister, and the CC would continue to be accountable to the Policing Board and District Policing Boards. Police will be unarmed but may be accompanied by UN Peace-Keepers when neccessary.

** UN forces would very liklely be made up of military units trained to use force only when absolutely neccessary, and their rules of engagement would reflect this, meaning that shooting unarmed civilians would be a lot less likely. While some Unionists/Loyalists might be hostile towards them as enforcers of the Treaty, they would probably be a lot less hostile to UN forces than they would be to the Irish Army. Nationalists and Republicans, because the Treaty is a victorty for them and because they largely support the UN, would probably be very unlikely to come into conflict with the Peace-Keepers. It is concieveable that, especially during the Marching Season, sometimes the UN forces might be briefly overwhelmed in specific geographic areas. In such cases it would make sense to briefly deploy the British Army rather than see rioting or paramilitary attacks. Ideally the officials involved would be smart enough to deploy the BA only in loyalist-only disturbances (or maybe that should be in the Treaty itself), to avoid the possibility of a return to republican-BA conflict.

** A purge of those PSNI officers who are sectarian and/or have colluded with loyalist paramilitaries will greatly increase the number of Nationalists willing to join the police, but in the meantime filling vacancies with officers organized by the UN would help maintain the PSNI's operational abilities and at the same time develop a human rights culture in the force. The continuation of plastic bullets would be unacceptable, whoever they might be used against. Considering police in the Republic and most police in GB are unarmed, disarming the PSNI is not unreasonable and would lessen the liklihood that the police would provoke violence as they have before. On the other hand, there would be many neighborhoods, both Loyalist and Republican, where unarmed police would be at risk, so it would make sense for them to be accompanied by armed UN Peace-Keepers. (I'm not sure if I'm wedded to the idea of unarmed police in the early part of this process)

** On purging the police, the more time that goes by, the likely that is to be neccessary if trends on Catholics joining the police continue- the more Catholics, the more the sectarians will leave.

Parades would continue to be determined by the Parades Commission, whose members will be agreed by the Irish and British governments. Security for controverisal parades will be provided only by UN Peace-Keepers.

The Republic would re-join the British Commonwealth.

** Although I'm not familiar with the Commonwealth, it seems like it has no real power over members, and requires few committments from it's members, so it really doesn't place the 26-Counties back under British rule at all, but being in the Commonwealth might have some special meaning for a lot of Unionists so this might make the transition to a United Ireland easier.

The Treaty Commission will consider any ambiguities in the Treaty and make any adjustments such as extending the time period for a Stage or an aspect of a Stage. It will also have responsibility for approving the Commander of UN forces. It's 7 members will be agreed by the Irish and British governments, should be composed of international affairs experts, former senior politicians from across the world, and include only one person from the Republic, one from GB, and one from NI. It's decisions can be vetoed by either a 75% vote of the JSA, or a majority of both Westminster and the Dail.

** I'm sure that even with a Treaty drafted by experienced people there will be at least some ambiguities and there will be some need for minor adjustments. Such changes should be made by people with at least no direct interest in Northern Ireland politcs (although the total exclusion of Irish, British, and Northern Irish people would be a mistake) but who have experience in international affairs. This way they're decisions will probably be accepted by most as being fair. If such a body has some degree of control over the peace-keeping forces, that will probably result in them being accepted more than they normally would. On the other hand, it would be somewhat undemocratic to have their decisions be completely final, so the three representative bodies should have veto power.

The Policing and Cease-Fire Commission's members will be agreed by the Irish and British governments. They should be people from across the globe with experience in human rights, criminal justice, conflict resolution and related fields and it's 7 members should include only one person from the Republic, one from GB, and one from NI. It's first job will be to establish criteria by which the JSA Home Affairs Minister will dismiss those Police Officers who are sectarian and/or have colluded with Loyalists. After that, the Commission will be charged with determining which organizations are on cease-fire. Towards the end of Stage Two they will help determine the relation between the Six-County Gardai, Dublin, the JSA Home Affairs Ministry, and the Policing Boards that will be used in Stage Three.

** Creating objective criteria for purging the police will probably be tricky and should be done by a group that can be seen as detached from the conflict so that the criteria will be seen as fair. And while determining the status of paramilitary cease-fires will be incredibly important, it is equally important that such determinations be and be seen as fair and objective. The details of integrating the PSNI into the Gardai while maintaining the power of the Policing Boards will need to be done by experts in such fields as policing.

A Truth and Reconciliation Commission will be established, it's members agreed by the Irish and British governments. They should be people from across the globe with experience in human rights, criminal law, conflict resolution and related fields and their 7 members should include only one person from the Republic, one from GB, and one from NI. They will review every incident since 1966 chronologically and make decisions on amnesty for those who have not been sentenced or haven't completed their original sentence.

Paramilitary organizations that are on cease-fire but are believed to still have weapons and explosives will be targets of searches for weapons and explosives. Anyone arrested in connection to such searches whose only crime is possession of weapons and explosives and membership of an illegal organization will be quickly released without charge. Organizations that are not on cease-fire will be subject to both searches, arrests and charges. Those who have been charged with paramiltary-related offenses will be given political status whether jailed in NI, The Republic, or GB.

** It is very likely that large chunks of the loyalist paramilitaries, and probably a very small number of dissident republicans, will engage in armed actions. It'll be neccessary to deal with those organizations, but arresting members of organizations that are on cease-fire would almost certainly just push them into ending their cease-fires, so it would make sense to create some kind of legal mechanism so that arms and explosives can be seized from cease-fire groups without having to detain their members for more than a day. POW status should also be given to members of paramilitary groups in jail- to do otherwise would invite more resistance.

STAGE TWO Years 11-20

At the beginning of this Stage (or between years 9 and 12 as decided by the Treaty Commission) representation in the Assembly will be changed to the following: 50 from NI, 30 from GB, and 30 from the Republic. Correspondingly the financial contributions will be changed to 44% from NI taxes, 28% from the Irish government, and 28% from the British government. NI representation in Westminster will be at three times the normal electoral quota, and NI representation in the Dail will be at twice the normal electoral quota.

** It makes sense to gradually shift representation to the Irish Republic and away from the UK.

The Irish Constitution and Supreme Court would replace their British equivelants, but laws and policies adopted by the JSA wouldn't have to be in line with Irish laws.

The British Army would be withdrawn from NI, their barracks occupied by Irish Army units. However, the IA would be confined to barracks in the same way the BA units were. All other security arrangements would remain the same as they had been in Stage One.

** Again, these measures would gradually shift NI towards integration with the Republic. The confinement to barracks of Irish troops would lessen the negative reaction of loyalists.

At this point Loyal Order marches will be allowed anywhere they want to go, provided the security for such marches is exclusively UN Peace-Keepers. The Parades Commision will still regulate some aspects of parades in NI.

** This is based partly on the fact that at least one Orange Order parade takes place every year in the Republic with little security, and without incident. As NI moves towards integration with the Republic, Loyal Order parades should be more acceptable to nationalist residents. And such a move would lessen unionist opposition to being eased into a United Ireland.

** In general, I stand by this, but it might be better saved for Stage Three, unless dramatic progress has been made on equality for Catholics- for example, how many years has it been since Catholics were significantly more likely to be unemployed than Protestants, how many sectarian murders of Catholics have taken place, etc. This is something that should be dealt with by the Treaty Commission.

STAGE THREE Years 21-30

At the begginning of this Stage (or between years 19 and 22 as decided by the Treaty Commission) representation in the Assembly will be changed to the following: 50 from NI, 10 from GB, and 50 from the Republic. Correspondingly the financial contributions will be changed to 45% from NI taxes, 45% from the Irish government, and 10% from the British government. NI representation at Westminster will end, NI will be fully represented in the Dail.

** I'm not quite sure what I was thinking with completely ending representation at Westminster, although it largely makes sense, maybe this should be tweaked so that there's still something like 1-3 MPs.

The Irish Army will replace the UN military forces who will be withdrawn from NI. A Six-County Irish Army commander must be approved by the Treaty Commission and on a day-to-day basis will answer to a Defense Committe made up of a representative from the British MOD, JSA Home Affairs Minister, and a representative from the UN Secretary-General. Police provided by the UN will be replaced by Gardai. The PSNI will be integrated into the Gardai and the Chief Constable will be appointed from Dublin but will still be answerable to the Policing Boards.

** Twenty years should be enough time to significantly reduce tensions and the paramilitary presence so that there will be little or no military presence needed on the streets; and whatever presence is needed should be provided by the Irish Army at this point, although they would still have some supervison from Britain, the UN, and the JSA Home Affairs Minister (who would, to some degree, be answerable to Unionists in the Assembly). By that time the PSNI should be fairly representative of the communities it polices (there should be a large Catholic element of the force) and there should also be a strong human rights culture in the force, so UN officers won't be needed. And it will be time for the PSNI to be almost completely integrated into the Gardai, with the Policing Boards as a local check.

POST STAGE THREE

The Six-County area will now be under the complete sovreignty of the Dublin State. The JSA will be dissolved. A Six-County Assembly with limted devolved powers determined by the Dail will be established and will last for at least 10 years. The Assembly will function as any other such body, without a requirement for members to designate as Unionist, Nationalist, or Other, or a requirement of cross-community support for an Executive.

** Although unionists really don't have anything to be concerned about, the fact is that even after 30 years there will still be some anxiety for them as they are finally cut off from the UK. A Six-County Assembly with at least limited autonomy will make this easier, as they will probably still have a small majority in the Six-Counties.

** Even without a power-sharing requirement (which it shouldn't have) there's no way this will result in a return to Stormont (the sectarian, Unionist-dominated government that existed from the early 20s until 1972)- even if the unionists try, the National government in Dublin will have authority to block such a move. This is also why a Six-County Assembly won't be a dilution of republican goals, as Dublin will have ultimate authority and the UK will have no formal influence at all. The idea that such an Assembly should include all nine counties of Ulster I think is a mistake. In a nine county area, unionists would probably be a small minority- certainly nowhere near as small a minority as they would be in all 32 counties, but still such a small minority that the effect of making them feel less ovrwhelmed would be negated. And I don't think there's anything wrong with acknowledging that the Six-County area is different from the rest of Ireland. And there's a good chance that "normal" politics will have taken hold there by then, especially as the main "southern" parties will almost certainly be organizing there (actually, at this point, all but one of them are).

** At this point, even in a Six-County Assembly, the odds of a return to the old days of Orange rule are very low. Even if the Executive is solidly Unionist, A) Unionism will probably have changed enough that they will not try to impose Orange rule on the Six-County area and B) if they do head in that direction, the Government in Dublin will have various means to check them. With that in mind, it is important that "normal" left-right, Labour-Tory politics develop which will focus on things like social and economic justice and encourage people to focus less on their national and religious identities and more as workers (or socialists, or middle-class, or whatever).

British pass-ports will remain available to anyone in the Six-County area and the Common Travel area between Ireland and the UK will remain, although they can both be ended by Westminster and/or the Dail.

** This will simply contribute a bit to making unionists feel comfortable asserting some kind of new British-Irish identity.


 UPDATE 8/16/15 Very shortly after the end of Stage 3 a constitutional convention will be held for all of Ireland, organized by the international community.

**At some point in the past for at least a year or two and probably a decade or two, Sinn Fein called for a constitutional convention to be part of a future unification of Ireland. I think it’s a great idea that should be revived as it would probably make the northern Protestants feel like they have a very big say in what kind of Ireland they’re being added to (and they’d be right- they’d be on the same level as everyone else).


(I always knew that with two aspects of this (possibly others, I haven't read it in a while, but for now I'm gonna go with two) I was aiming for the extremes. 30 years is at the upper end of how long this process should last. It might make more sense to aim for 5 years instead of 10 for each phase, with some flexibility as described above. The other area is security force levels, but letting the BA stay around during the first phase makes sense in terms of making the process easier on the Unionists, and having the IA move in before the UN leaves more or less makes sense)